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merge updates from vector
Add XGBoost predictor for manufacturing stress forecasts
feat(manufacturing): add notebook workbench and cached LLMP backtest
Expand manufacturing stress data features
…tput Fix/manufacturing agent json output
FRED now truncates BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA HY OAS) to a rolling 3-year window, which silently zeroed out every fit-at-origin training example for the logistic/XGBoost/agent predictors across both backtest windows (build_feature_snapshot requires all features present or drops the row). Replace it with BAA10Y (Moody's Baa corporate yield minus 10Y Treasury), which has full history back to 1986, and rename HY_SPREAD to CREDIT_SPREAD throughout to reflect the new source. Also removes the GSCPI data source and its test, and finishes the STATISTICAL_FEATURE_SERIES_IDS -> FEATURE_SERIES_IDS cleanup in the logistic/XGBoost predictors.
Lets the tune/confirm sweep test alternative stress-label definitions (e.g. -1.5% trailing 3-month IPMAN decline instead of the -2.0% default) without editing code. Threshold changes redefine the target, so results across different thresholds are not directly comparable.
Fix manufacturing-stress credit spread feature (FRED truncation)
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uv run pytest tests/)uv run mypy <src_dir>)uv run ruff check src_dir/)Manual testing details:
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